29 April 2022

1Q 2022 Commentary

Summary

  • Performance
  • Increased exposure to Vietnam, dry bulk and commodities
  • Capital flows into Indonesian and Thai equities of USD 6 bn for 1Q2022

Performance

In the first quarter of 2022, the RVC Emerging Asia Fund returned +1.6% versus the MSCI ASEAN which increased +1.8%.

Over the past 12 months the RVC Emerging Asia Fund returned +16.5% versus the MSCI ASEAN which declined -0.5%.

Key Movements & Weightings

Key Movements

The Fund was active in January quickly increasing cash from near 0% intra-month to 10%, as a result of the movements in the market due to Omicron and other factors which resulted in opportunities again being available and thus:

  • In the month of January we increased our exposure to ITMG IJ
  • Increased weightings in tourism related plays in Thailand, specifically CENTEL TB
  • Increased our weightings in Vietnam with the majority in GMD VN which is now 5% of the Fund.
  • Increased exposure to dry bulk during Chinese New Year.
  • As a result of the Ukraine/Russia war, we took advantage of the spike in oil prices to USD 130/bbl and reduced one of our oil holdings, specifically PTTEP TB from 3% to 1% of the Fund.

Weightings by Category

% Weight Key Name(s)
Bad debt/Non-bank Financing 27% JMART TB, SINGER TB, JMT TB, CHAYO TB
Supply Chain Disruption 18% ITMG IJ, PSL TB, TTA TB, HIBI MK, III TB
Tech & Travel 17% CENTEL TB, SHR TB, MAC PM, BE8 TB, YGG TB
Vietnam Ascent 14% GMD VN, VPB VN, TCB VN, SCS VN, VTP VN
Market Share Consol 10% RALS IJ, MRSGI PM, SEVN PM, JFC PM

Capital Flow ASEAN

During the First Quarter of 2022 there has been a shift in international capital flow into ASEAN, specifically to Indonesia and Thailand.

Summary:

  • Over the past 12 months, $3.9 bn into Indonesia, $2.7 bn into Thailand
  • Year to date, $2.2 bn into Indonesia, $3.4 bn into Thailand.

3 months

12 months